Fight OddsPrime Picks: UFC 317 ‘Topuria vs. Oliveira’
The Ultimate Fighting Championship stages
International Fight Week in the most international city in the
world: Las Vegas. A pair of belts are up for grabs on Saturday at
T-Mobile Arena, and our expected victors may fly in the face of
conventional wisdom or typical betting advice and preview analysis.
Take a few risks with the
UFC 317 edition of Prime Picks, as we foresee that violence
begets violence in an oh-so delightful way.
Typically, the fighters who draw focus in this section have a minus next to their name. Such was the case when the lines opened, as Royval started off around -120 and has gravitated into plus territory. The betting confidence in his opponent, Joshua Van, is at an all-time high, thanks in part to an ultra-active schedule on his side. While Van got clocked by Charles Johnson a little under a year ago, four growingly impressive wins made many forget about that unsuccessful outing. Even with those solid wins on his ledger, the jump from the likes of Bruno “Bulldog” Silva and Cody Durden all the way up to Royval, who was a scorecard away from holding the belt, is a wide one.
Van took the opportunity presented to him, and the young man is
full of confidence and vinegar, to paraphrase the vulgar
expression. Replacing Manel Kape
on short notice, Van could place himself in immediate title
contention at the age of 23. All he has to do is get past one of
the most unpredictable, dynamic attackers the flyweight division
has seen in years. Royval, who stands across the cage from Van, has
only lost to future or sitting champions since joining the roster.
Lately, his aggression and intensity has nearly gotten him into
trouble, as judges seem to be confused by his approach even though
the
majority of third-party scorers had him beating Brandon
Moreno and
every media member putting in tallies saw him getting one over
on Tatsuro
Taira.
The output from Royval can rival any opponent standing in his way, and only his takedown defense has kept him off the throne to date. Unless Van, who has surrendered more takedowns than he has landed, suddenly sports a singlet walking into the cage, Royval can get to him on the feet, outscramble him on the mat and wrap up unorthodox submissions in the blink of an eye. It might be a case of too much, too soon for Van, who is taking this short-notice opportunity after a whirlwind schedule. Whether the frenetic pace of fight after fight catches up with him or Royval gets him on the ground enough to ruin his day, the Factory X standout has the goods to stage what is now considered a betting upset.
There may be fewer better, clearer trap fights in the UFC’s middleweight division than Jack Hermansson, even though his win-one-lose-one pattern has dropped him out of the rankings. Ask Joe Pyfer. Or Chris Curtis. Or Edmen Shahbazyan. Or Kelvin Gastelum. Or Ronaldo Souza. While “The Joker” has lost bouts between each of those victories, he was practically only favored to beat “Jacare,” with the rest of those named foes pick-’ems or not in his favor. A skillful combination of deceptively effective wrestling, quietly strong punching power and a sneaky submission game leaves him as a dangerous foe even if he has not logged many stoppages as of late. What tends to let him get past opponents many expect will run him over is that he can embody the overused adage of “dragging them into deep waters to drown them.”
Fully capable of going three to five hard rounds, Hermansson is capable of something that Rodrigues may not be. It was the energy reserves of “Robocop” that turned against him when he faced Jared Cannonier, giving the much older man his first knockout in three years as a result. Most fighters can compete for 15 minutes—Terrance McKinney notwithstanding—if they are in the driver’s seat pushing the pace. When having to go through adversity, the gas tank truly gets tested, and Rodrigues’ does not always hold up. In terms of single-strike power, Rodrigues may hold the advantage, but his willingness to wrestle and play jiu-jitsu if put on his back despite no submissions since 2018 gives Hermansson a solid avenue to victory that makes the Brazilian one of the less desirable options on this lineup at this price. If one wants to dig deep and is confident that “Robocop” will issue a threat of “dead or alive, you’re coming with me,” dive in at +200 for Rodrigues by knockout.
Those familiar with the Prime Picks series since the middle of 2019 will have seen this underdog pick coming from a mile away. There may be no fighter at plus money on this whole event more dangerous no matter where the fight takes place than Oliveira. This is a man who has not only led the promotion in submission wins for years but is also the all-time stoppage leader in the UFC with 20. He is completely unafraid to stand and bang with the likes of Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje—in back-to-back-to-back stoppage victories, no less—so what would he have to fear from a blown-up featherweight who got dropped by Jai Herbert just three short years ago?
It is a tough argument to suggest that Topuria has superior punching power at this weight class, given his only appearance at 155 pounds was a one-off where he did get put on his seat by “The Black Country Banger” but came back to smoke him a few minutes later. That lone data point pales in comparison to the Brazilian’s three combined knockdowns in the aforementioned murderer’s row trio of opponents raised above. None of this is to write off the achievements and accomplishments of Topuria in eight tremendous outings in the Octagon thus far, and his lamping of Max Holloway stands in the pantheon of miraculous happenings in the cage. Topuria has taken the necessary time to bulk up properly rather than leaping from division to division as some do, and that should help not only his durability but also may translate up some additional firepower. It remains to be seen how his cut to 155 pounds will go, if he put on too much mass relocating divisions or will comfortably hit championship weight. No matter his condition, he will be in grave danger as long as Oliveira remains conscious. “Do Bronxs” is an underdog who has some bewildered why the line is so high in the other man’s favor.
The odds of this three-piece may be a little higher than we like to aim for with our parlays, but all three of our options seem rock solid. The anchor of this accumulator is the expected firefight in the main event, which defies some predictions that it somehow goes to the scorecards. Based on how these fighters approach mutual combat and that their finish rates are 87% or higher, it seems like a foregone conclusion that the scorekeeper will not be tabulating the numbers at the conclusion of the final horn. In the unlikely occurrence that this does end in the hands of the judges, how will that happen? Is Oliveira capable of suffocating top-control wrestling, where he does not try to pursue a submission or look to finish things with ground-and-pound? What if Topuria’s punching power does not phase Oliveira? When it comes to two titans of devastation, follow Occam’s razor: The simplest solution is often the best—and in this case, superior from a betting perspective.
If the main attraction is expected to be one that could end in the blink of an eye, what could the match between McKinney and Borshchev be coined? An ultimate lightweight smash-’em-up derby? It is by no accident that “T. Wrecks” has never heard the final horn as a professional, and he has only reached the third round on one occasion several years ago. While “Slava” may sport a 75% knockout rate on his own ledger and enough durability to never get stopped with strikes—yet—he is exactly the kind of wild man that will meet McKinney in the center of the cage and throw down. Whether it is by the mighty fists of Borshchev or a stunning club-and-sub rear-naked choke from the Washington native, this one should not get past the 10-minute mark.
It may be a bit of a letdown that the third piece in this parlay puzzle wraps up with something that may take a while. Even with -700 odds, this seems like a bit of a layup for Araujo and Cortez to go long. There is as much of a chance that either woman slips on an in-cage banana peel as one of them decks the other. Not since her promotional debut in 2019—11 fights ago—has Araujo earned or been on the receiving end of a stoppage. It is quite remarkable, statistically and otherwise, that Cortez has gone to a judges’ decision in all six of her UFC outings, to say nothing of this being her seventh UFC match despite debuting the same year Araujo did. If one of these two women gets the referee involved before the final bell, it would bring joy to everyone inside T-Mobile Arena. Not all decisions are lackluster, but the fact that these two have combined for 17 straight full-length bouts with nary a “Fight of the Night” between them all-but promises that it may end up as a momentum-draining encounter. As long as it goes long, this parlay is money.
STRAIGHT-UP CASH
Brandon Royval (+105)
Typically, the fighters who draw focus in this section have a minus next to their name. Such was the case when the lines opened, as Royval started off around -120 and has gravitated into plus territory. The betting confidence in his opponent, Joshua Van, is at an all-time high, thanks in part to an ultra-active schedule on his side. While Van got clocked by Charles Johnson a little under a year ago, four growingly impressive wins made many forget about that unsuccessful outing. Even with those solid wins on his ledger, the jump from the likes of Bruno “Bulldog” Silva and Cody Durden all the way up to Royval, who was a scorecard away from holding the belt, is a wide one.
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The output from Royval can rival any opponent standing in his way, and only his takedown defense has kept him off the throne to date. Unless Van, who has surrendered more takedowns than he has landed, suddenly sports a singlet walking into the cage, Royval can get to him on the feet, outscramble him on the mat and wrap up unorthodox submissions in the blink of an eye. It might be a case of too much, too soon for Van, who is taking this short-notice opportunity after a whirlwind schedule. Whether the frenetic pace of fight after fight catches up with him or Royval gets him on the ground enough to ruin his day, the Factory X standout has the goods to stage what is now considered a betting upset.
STRAIGHT-UP PASS
Gregory Rodrigues (-235)
There may be fewer better, clearer trap fights in the UFC’s middleweight division than Jack Hermansson, even though his win-one-lose-one pattern has dropped him out of the rankings. Ask Joe Pyfer. Or Chris Curtis. Or Edmen Shahbazyan. Or Kelvin Gastelum. Or Ronaldo Souza. While “The Joker” has lost bouts between each of those victories, he was practically only favored to beat “Jacare,” with the rest of those named foes pick-’ems or not in his favor. A skillful combination of deceptively effective wrestling, quietly strong punching power and a sneaky submission game leaves him as a dangerous foe even if he has not logged many stoppages as of late. What tends to let him get past opponents many expect will run him over is that he can embody the overused adage of “dragging them into deep waters to drown them.”
Fully capable of going three to five hard rounds, Hermansson is capable of something that Rodrigues may not be. It was the energy reserves of “Robocop” that turned against him when he faced Jared Cannonier, giving the much older man his first knockout in three years as a result. Most fighters can compete for 15 minutes—Terrance McKinney notwithstanding—if they are in the driver’s seat pushing the pace. When having to go through adversity, the gas tank truly gets tested, and Rodrigues’ does not always hold up. In terms of single-strike power, Rodrigues may hold the advantage, but his willingness to wrestle and play jiu-jitsu if put on his back despite no submissions since 2018 gives Hermansson a solid avenue to victory that makes the Brazilian one of the less desirable options on this lineup at this price. If one wants to dig deep and is confident that “Robocop” will issue a threat of “dead or alive, you’re coming with me,” dive in at +200 for Rodrigues by knockout.
’DOG WILL HUNT
Charles Oliveira (+330)
Those familiar with the Prime Picks series since the middle of 2019 will have seen this underdog pick coming from a mile away. There may be no fighter at plus money on this whole event more dangerous no matter where the fight takes place than Oliveira. This is a man who has not only led the promotion in submission wins for years but is also the all-time stoppage leader in the UFC with 20. He is completely unafraid to stand and bang with the likes of Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje—in back-to-back-to-back stoppage victories, no less—so what would he have to fear from a blown-up featherweight who got dropped by Jai Herbert just three short years ago?
It is a tough argument to suggest that Topuria has superior punching power at this weight class, given his only appearance at 155 pounds was a one-off where he did get put on his seat by “The Black Country Banger” but came back to smoke him a few minutes later. That lone data point pales in comparison to the Brazilian’s three combined knockdowns in the aforementioned murderer’s row trio of opponents raised above. None of this is to write off the achievements and accomplishments of Topuria in eight tremendous outings in the Octagon thus far, and his lamping of Max Holloway stands in the pantheon of miraculous happenings in the cage. Topuria has taken the necessary time to bulk up properly rather than leaping from division to division as some do, and that should help not only his durability but also may translate up some additional firepower. It remains to be seen how his cut to 155 pounds will go, if he put on too much mass relocating divisions or will comfortably hit championship weight. No matter his condition, he will be in grave danger as long as Oliveira remains conscious. “Do Bronxs” is an underdog who has some bewildered why the line is so high in the other man’s favor.
AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION
Topuria-Oliveira Lasts Under 3.5 Rounds (-385)
Terrance McKinney-Viacheslav Borshchev Doesn’t Start Round 3 (-400)
Viviane Araujo-Tracy Cortez Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-700)
Total Odds: -125
The odds of this three-piece may be a little higher than we like to aim for with our parlays, but all three of our options seem rock solid. The anchor of this accumulator is the expected firefight in the main event, which defies some predictions that it somehow goes to the scorecards. Based on how these fighters approach mutual combat and that their finish rates are 87% or higher, it seems like a foregone conclusion that the scorekeeper will not be tabulating the numbers at the conclusion of the final horn. In the unlikely occurrence that this does end in the hands of the judges, how will that happen? Is Oliveira capable of suffocating top-control wrestling, where he does not try to pursue a submission or look to finish things with ground-and-pound? What if Topuria’s punching power does not phase Oliveira? When it comes to two titans of devastation, follow Occam’s razor: The simplest solution is often the best—and in this case, superior from a betting perspective.
If the main attraction is expected to be one that could end in the blink of an eye, what could the match between McKinney and Borshchev be coined? An ultimate lightweight smash-’em-up derby? It is by no accident that “T. Wrecks” has never heard the final horn as a professional, and he has only reached the third round on one occasion several years ago. While “Slava” may sport a 75% knockout rate on his own ledger and enough durability to never get stopped with strikes—yet—he is exactly the kind of wild man that will meet McKinney in the center of the cage and throw down. Whether it is by the mighty fists of Borshchev or a stunning club-and-sub rear-naked choke from the Washington native, this one should not get past the 10-minute mark.
It may be a bit of a letdown that the third piece in this parlay puzzle wraps up with something that may take a while. Even with -700 odds, this seems like a bit of a layup for Araujo and Cortez to go long. There is as much of a chance that either woman slips on an in-cage banana peel as one of them decks the other. Not since her promotional debut in 2019—11 fights ago—has Araujo earned or been on the receiving end of a stoppage. It is quite remarkable, statistically and otherwise, that Cortez has gone to a judges’ decision in all six of her UFC outings, to say nothing of this being her seventh UFC match despite debuting the same year Araujo did. If one of these two women gets the referee involved before the final bell, it would bring joy to everyone inside T-Mobile Arena. Not all decisions are lackluster, but the fact that these two have combined for 17 straight full-length bouts with nary a “Fight of the Night” between them all-but promises that it may end up as a momentum-draining encounter. As long as it goes long, this parlay is money.
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